The European Green Deal, the Fit-for-55 Package and the Future of EU Climate Governance
In the Closing Keynote of the online Conclima conference, Professor Sebastian Oberthür examined the European Green Deal and the Fit for 55 package: the EU’s core strategies for achieving climate neutrality by 2050 and reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030. Together, these strategies encompass around 19–20 legislative acts, ranging from strengthening the EU Emissions Trading System and renewable energy rules to introducing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and regulating methane emissions.
Oberthür emphasised that analysis shows the current framework should be sufficient to meet the 2030 target, but only if it is fully implemented and safeguarded against political weakening. He pointed to challenges such as recent farmers’ protests, regulatory “simplifications” that may dilute standards, and growing political and ideological opposition to the Green Deal. He warned against bypassing evidence-based policymaking, such as skipping proper impact assessments, and highlighted the need for legal certainty.
Looking ahead, he stressed the importance of adopting an ambitious 2040 target (likely at least 90%), ensuring coherent legislation, strengthening public participation, and securing a socially fair transition to maintain both climate ambition and public support.
Key highlights
- The European Green Deal is an overarching growth and sustainability strategy, cross-cutting across all EU sectors — not limited to climate policy.
- The Fit for 55 package contains about 19–20 legislative measures to deliver a 55% emissions reduction by 2030.
- New elements include the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), methane regulation, and expansion of the EU Emissions Trading System.
- Full implementation by Member States is essential; legislative adoption alone will not deliver the targets.
- One major file — energy taxation reform — remains stalled due to unanimity requirements and is likely to be less ambitious if adopted.
- Political challenges include protests, regulatory weakening (“simplifications”), and ideological opposition to the Green Deal.
- Skipping proper impact assessments risks undermining evidence-based policymaking and legal certainty.
- Social fairness measures, such as the Social Climate Fund, are key to public acceptance.
- Greater public participation and diversity of views can improve policy quality, legitimacy, and acceptance.
- The EU’s upcoming 2040 target (expected at least -90%, potentially with flexibility via carbon removals and international credits) will guide the next climate governance cycle.
- Future policies should seek to combine ambition, competitiveness, and environmental protection — avoiding false trade-offs between them.